|
marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
705 am PST Thu 4 Dec 2008
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The combination of the mid latitude trough centered near the
central Aleutians with a Sharp Ridge axis near 130w. The latest
models continue to be consistent with current pattern and in
line with earlier model runs.
At the sfc...high pres ridge axis noted from WA offshore waters
SW through 34n139w as a low pres trough noted near the nrn calif
into or coast. Given the good agreement in the consensus of the
models...little change expected in next forecast package.
Previous discussion...................
Opc sfc map at 06z places a 1030 mb high nr 47n130w and a low
pres trof over cstl CA and or. Qscat pass around 0220z had a
data void extending from the S Vancouver CST SW through most of
the or and N CA wtrs. Highest observed wnds over the offshr/cwf
were 25 kt and were located in an area from pt Arena to Cape
Blanco.
00z gdnc remains in overall gud agrmt for most of the prd with
the GFS to be preferred. Sfc high pres ridging will dominate the
pattern thru late Thu...then a weak fnt will slowly pass thru
the nrn zones before dsiptg over N CA early Sat. High pres
builds W of the offshr sun...then shifts E Mon in advance of a
fnt mvg thru the g of AK. 00z mdls all in agrmt on psn of a low
pres trof along the CST sun/Mon...and with the psn/strength of
high. Minor difference in mdls for Mon prd. 00z/18z GFS runs
both show gales W of pt Arena up to Pt St George Mon late. 00z
CMC/ec/UK slightly weaker with bl wnds since they keep the high
farther W than GFS. Attm will bump wnds to 30 kt over N CA wtrs
but delay any wrngs. Elsewhere 00z mdls in gud agrmt with a
wmfnt crossing the WA wtrs Mon...with wnds in the 15-25 kt rng.
Seas...00z run of ww3 is within 1-2 ft of ltst sfc obs across
the offshr/cwf. Gdnc will be followed closely for fcst.
.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be
coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...none.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...None.
.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...none.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.
.Forecaster mcrandal/banks. Ocean forecast branch.
|
