MichaelSTL's WunderBlog

Of note is that snow was reported for the first time today (Nov 15), although only a trace (the average date for the first accumulating snow is December 1, and December 4 for an inch or more). For comparison, here are the dates for the first snowfall of a trace, first measurable snowfall (>= 0.1") and first snowfall >= 1 inch for the past 5 years:

       Trace         Measurable    1 inch or more
2003:  November 14   December 10   December 13
2004:  November 24   November 24   November 24
2005:  November 29   December 1    December 8
2006:  November 30   November 30   November 30
2007:  November 21   December 6    December 15

Updated list of ten wettest years on record (through Nov 15):

 1.   54.97   1982 
 2.   54.76   1993 
 3.   52.98   2008
 4.   51.65   1984  
 5.   50.83   1927   
 6.   50.73   1985  
 7.   50.31   1946 
 8.   49.28   1915 
 9.   49.20   1898  
10.   48.46   1876

Tonight: Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind between 9 and 11 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. West wind between 9 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. West wind between 8 and 10 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind between 8 and 11 mph.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 24. North wind between 3 and 9 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 41.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 51.

November precipitation outlook:

Continuing the trend during most of this year of months alternating between wet and dry (one possibility is that it is due to the MJO, which has a 30-60 day period), November is likely to be wetter than normal, and if so, we will break the annual precipitation record this month, with December still to go (December would likely be drier if things hold up); the GFS forecast for the next couple weeks and the CPC's outlooks for the next 6-14 days and month support this as well:

January: -0.16
February: 2.32
March: 4.79
April: 0.07
May: 6.73
June: -1.87
July: 3.60
August: -1.39
September: 6.81
October: -1.53

(bold = above normal, italics = near or below normal)






Temperature departures for the previous three falls (first frost is the first occurrence of 32 or lower):


Local Watches, Warnings, and Advisories Map; click here for national map:




Weather Story / Graphical Nowcast / Graphical HWO (click for details):


Hazards scale (mouse over for description; click here for a list of associated events for each level):








(click any of these to enlarge; the CPC outlooks take you to the main page of the Climate Prediction Center; the meteograms are from www.wxmaps.org and the GFS/NAM/NGM/RUC graphs from coolwx.com)

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