Allan Reed

Tropical Storm Fay may be at 50 mph, but looking at the last few frames of the IR, it seems to be blowing up convection and looking a bit, "hurricaneish" to me. I still am looking for winds to be up at 65 mph. by the next advisory which is at 2:00 a.m., then 75 mph. by 5 a.m. before hitting Cuba. Cuba is likely to not tear it apart like it did with Ernesto (2006). Ernesto traveled a good length of Cuba while Fay will only travel a couple of miles to the north. It appears that Fay is starting to make that urn towards Florida now and we all need to pay attention to it.


Tropical Storm Fay


How strong Fay will get, where will it hit?

I am not ruling out a rapid intensification to major hurricane status with Fay due to past storms that have traveled in the spot of the Gulf that Fay is going to go through, one of them being her big brother Charley (2004). I'm expecting Fay to at least be a category 2 at landfall around the Tampa area, but not ruling out a category 3 because the waters are sooo warm over there.
Models are pretty spread out but because Fay has now started it's northwestward movement, I'm positive that it will head to the Peninsula of FL. After moving through Florida and possibly bring us some damage here in Palm Coast, FL, it will turn west again due to a building high pressure ridge and stall in the southeast, bringing heavy rains. I still wonder if my job will be closing Tuesday, I know schools might be closing, they are on alert for now.
So here's my second run on Fay with a high confidence!


Tropical Storm Fay 2nd run!


It's time to get ready and please if you haven't prepared, PREPARE NOW! I'm telling you the forecast is being conservative. Look what happened with Katrina and Rita of 2005, blew up like a balloon! So stay safe and I will update after Fay becomes a Hurricane.